The supply of natural rubber is relatively sufficient, domestic road transport capacity and truck production continues to grow. Tires, especially all steel tire manufacturing enterprise operating rate maintained at a high level, the demand for natural rubber is large. The prices of Natural rubber are expected to remain relatively stable in the near future.
(1) The raw material supply of natural rubber is tight
In October, affected by several typhoons such as “Lanka”, “Shadel” and “Morafei”, the number of effective rubber cutters in Hainan production area was reduced, the raw material supply was relatively tight, the climatic conditions in Yunnan production area were good, and the rubber cutting activity was normal. Due to frequent typhoons and heavy rains in Thailand, Vietnam and other major producing countries, affected by the expected increase in purchase prices, some farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to a relatively tight supply of raw materials. The supply of new natural rubber is low, especially concentrated latex.
(2) The spot price of natural rubber has risen considerably
In October, the average price of latex in Shanghai and Shandong was 13,196 yuan per ton in the domestic market, up 13.1% month-on-month and 20.9% year-on-year. The average price of mixed glue in Shandong market is 12088 yuan per ton, up 12.3% month on month and 10.3% year on year. In the Southeast Asian market, the average price of RSS3 in Thailand was USD 2,218 per ton, RMB 14,862 per ton, up 21.3% month on month and 65.0% year on year. The average price of SIR20 in Indonesia is USD 1586 per ton, RMB 10627 per ton, up 15.3% month on month and 19.7% year on year. The average price of SMR20 in Malaysia is US $1593 per ton and RMB 10,674 per ton, up 13.9% month on month and 19.9% year on year. The price increase of whole latex and tobacco film based on fresh latex is greater than that of other solid products.
(3) The future price of natural rubber has risen considerably
In October, the average price of the main contract (2101) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 14,503 yuan per ton, up 16.3 percent month on month and 24.3 percent year on year. The average settlement price of the main rubber contract of THE Tokyo Industrial Products Exchange (2103) is 199.3 yen per kg and 12,670 yuan per ton, up 9.0% month-on-month and 21.8% year-on-year.
(4) Imports of natural rubber and mixed rubber continue to increase
According to customs statistics, China imported 291,800 tons of natural rubber in September, up 67.6 percent month-on-month and 36.8 percent year-on-year. Mixed rubber tons, up 9.5% month-on-month, 90.9% year on year. From January to September, China imported 1,498,700 tons of natural rubber, down 18.6% year on year, and imported 1.915 billion U.S. dollars, down 22.5% year on year. The import of mixed rubber reached 2.6648 million tons, up 47.1% year on year, and the import of US $3.538 billion, up 44.8% year on year. In the first three quarters of 2020, the imports of mixed rubber increased significantly compared with the same period last year, while the imports of natural rubber decreased.